Can Green Jet Fuel Help Aviation in India Take Off?

The aviation sector is poised at a tipping point. As global attention converges around climate change, the industry finds itself under increasing pressure to take action that minimises its carbon emissions. Closer home, a report by professional services firm Deloitte, Green Wings: India’s SAF Revolution in the Making, puts forth an ambitious claim: India can potentially produce 8-10mn tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2040. The number also aligns with a domestic demand forecast of 4.5mn tonnes, aiming for a 15 per cent blending mandate across all flights.

How do we get there though? Investments worth Rs 6-7 lakh crore could propel India to produce enough SAF to cater to this domestic demand, with the 15% blending mandate across all flights, by 2040. It could also position India as a leading exporter of SAF.

Experts point out that SAF, which can be produced through agri-waste, will also create 1.1 and 1.4mn jobs across the value chain and help reduce crude oil imports by $5-7bn, annually. In turn, it will give farmers an additional source of income and curtail stubble burning, a source of air pollution and heightened CO2 emissions.

Outlook Business decodes SAF‘s actual potential to decarbonise aviation and the challenges it may run into.

A Growth Sector for the Future

India’s aviation sector is anticipated to grow at 11% over the next few years on the back of improvements in connectivity in Tier-II and Tier-III cities, increased aircraft capacity and changing passenger preferences. The demand for aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in India is predicted to expand in step with the growth in both passenger and freight traffic. By 2030 the aviation sector's contribution to the nation's transport emissions is projected to rise from its current level of about 5% to between 8 and 10%, said experts at Deloitte.

There are several pathways to decarbonise the aviation sector. Some of these are hydrogen fuel, electric aircraft and operational improvement. Experts, however, are of the opinion that while newer technologies such as hydrogen fuel and electric aircrafts are nascent, SAF can help cut back on emissions more immediately. As per estimates, SAF is expected to contribute between 53 per cent and 66 per cent in achieving net-zero targets for the sector.

Why Bet on SAF?

SAF is a drop-in liquid jet fuel that can be used in existing aircrafts and be manufactured from sustainable sources. Feedstock including waste oil and fats, sugarcane, molasses, maize and other grains, agri-residues and municipal solid wastes can be used to produce SAF. It can also be produced synthetically through processes that capture carbon directly from the air and use green hydrogen. SAF has the capacity to reduce carbon emissions by up to 85 per cent, depending on the production pathway used to manufacture it.

The Deloitte report maps the current production of these feedstocks. It projects that while used cooking oil, maize and other grains might face a potential shortfall there would be an increase in availability of agri-residue and solid waste. Currently, only 25-30 per cent of agri-residue is used for biofuel production, but access to more agri-residue for production of SAF is possible by 2040. Similarly, only 10-15 per cent of organic matters in municipal solid waste are used for production of SAF. This too can be increased by 2040 through better technology for segregating waste.

Challenges in Scaling Up

Given the ease of availability of feedstock, the alcohol-to-jet technology (AtJ) to manufacture SAF looks the most promising for India. The AtJ technology uses sugary, starch crops, agriculture residue and forestry residue as its feedstock. But this may also mean that there is added pressure on farmland to produce crops that can be used to manufacture SAF. Sceptics argue that decarbonising aviation should not mean failing to ensure food security and inflation of food prices, a challenge that India must address.

The Deloitte report states that alternative and innovative feedstock such as sweet sorghum can be evaluated for ethanol production. It offers benefits compared to conventional ethanol-producing feedstock as the stalk can be used for production of ethanol while the grain can be consumed as food. Sweet sorghum can be produced in multiple seasons and has a low cost of production. It also requires less water for its growth. Seaweed is also another feedstock with potential. It can be cultivated on non-arable costal land and then degraded by an engineered enzyme to produce ethanol and SAF, states the report. However, these developments are still nascent and until there is more research India may want to assess the risk of devoting arable land to scale up SAF production. This may not be feasible, warn experts.

Decarbonising the aviation sector with SAF comes with a catch. Like fossil fuels, SAF still has to be burned for flying an aircraft. SAF releases a mix of nitrous oxides, soot, sulfate aerosols and water vapour, all of which impact climate change. Advocates of SAF argue that these crop-based biofuels have an advantage over other traditional fuels because they absorb atmospheric carbon as they grow. They argue that the key lies in cutting carbon emissions along the entire SAF supply chain and through its life cycle.  

Getting the Blend Right 

The aviation ministry has committed to ensure that 1 per cent of SAF is blended with jet fuel for international commercial flights by 2027 and then increased to 2 per cent by 2028. These are indicative SAF blending targets and are applicable only for international flights. Based on the current commitment to blending mandates, demand for SAF would reach 0.03mn tonnes. If the blending mandate is increased to 5 per cent in 2030 and 15 per cent in 2040 for both domestic and international flights, demand for SAF in India is projected to reach 0.8mn tonnes in 2030 and 4.5mn tonnes in 2040, states the report. However, Neste, recognised as the leading producer of SAF globally, highlights that flights utilising Neste’s SAF are limited to a maximum blend of 50 per cent, resulting in less significant carbon reduction outcomes. Even when supplied in a 40 per cent blend, Neste’s SAF achieves only a 32 per cent reduction in net emissions compared to traditional fossil fuels, states the firm.