Emkay Wealth predicts Brent may test $78-80 and the support at $68 -70 levels.
The Brent crude oil prices may test higher levels of $78-80, and the support may be at the $68-70 level. But the rise maybe, to a certain extent, limited by the strength in the US Dollar against other currency majors, said a study conducted by Emkay Wealth Management.
One major factor that dominated oil markets is the possibility of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran, and also better relations between the two countries, based on the reported talks between the two parties. This would mean that the supply from Iran will be in the markets as soon as such a pact is reached.
Therefore, the prices should naturally come down. But there is a strong view that oil prices may start going up, anticipating this supply in the near future, it said.
What to Expect in the Future?
One of the seasonal factors is that during and immediately after the summer in the northern hemisphere the number of people who would take to the highways and move to holiday destinations is quite large, and this keeps the prices high.
This is one reason that may support prices to remain high. It is also worth noting that the recovery in economic activity in the US and Europe is on course, and the same may be true of the leading Asian countries too. This may also support higher oil prices though demand in Asia is yet to go back to the pre-pandemic levels, the study revealed.
The production in the US which was at 13 million barrels per day just before the pandemic has touched almost 11 million barrels per day recently. Therefore, restoration of supply, as well as demand, is happening.
Overall economic conditions warrant higher consumption and therefore, higher prices. Again, much would depend on the stance taken by OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) which may be meeting soon. Russia is now in sync with OPEC in achieving the production cuts which OPEC had envisioned earlier.
A related matter is the enhanced climate activism seen in the recent past and the likely attempts at containment of carbon emissions by oil companies and producers. It is gathering pace and it is good for the environment and the posterity. It also means higher prices for oil as we start implementing the governance standards on climate. The extent to which renewable energy or electricity could replace the traditional sources is limited in the initial stages, and in fact, many believe that the common man may not be able to afford the costs associated with electric vehicles, it said.