Current Climate Plans Fall Short of Paris Goals, 2025 Emissions May Still Surpass 1990 Levels by 54%

Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 could reach around 53 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e), a 54 per cent increase from 1990 levels and at a similar level to that in 2019, if countries implement their climate action plans, according to a UN paper cited in a Down To Earth report.

Published by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on nationally determined contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, the paper suggested that the total GHG emissions in 2030 could come down by 2.8 per cent to 51.5 Gt CO2e from 2025 levels. The estimates for both the years exclude emissions from land use, land use change and forestry. 

Although it represents a 2.6 per cent reduction compared to 2019 levels, the latest figure showed an improvement from previous estimates. The 2023 report estimated that NDCs could reduce global emissions by 2 per cent in 2030 compared to 2019.

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The report, analysing 168 updated NDCs submitted by 195 signatories to the Paris agreement, finds that countries would need to achieve a 43 per cent reduction by 2030. 

Even if NDCs are implemented completely until 2030, global mean temperatures could rise in the range of 2.1–2.8°C by 2100. The study, mentioned in DTE report, pointed out that less than half the countries have implemented NDC targets. 

The Paris agreement, signed in 2016, aimed to keep the global temperatures below 2°C, targeting to reach 1.5°C. To achieve the target, countries update their NDCs every five years. 

Moreover, only 50 per cent of signatories have set long-term goals, extending to 2050 and beyond. If countries achieve both their NDCs and long-term commitments, emissions could be reduced by 63 per cent by 2050 compared to 2019, and annual per capita emissions could fall to 2.4 tonnes of CO2 equivalent. However, to meet the 1.5°C target, per capita emissions would need to be two to three times lower at 1.3 t CO2e, according to a report.