India’s 2030 Emission Targets are in Sight but the Road Beyond is Bumpy

India stands third after China and the United States in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, states the recently published United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2024. But the ranking hides an important fact. India’s per capita emission is low at 2.9 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), much below the global average of 6.6 tCO2e. Studies confirm the fact – emissions in countries such as China, India and the Russian Federation are yet to peak.

The UN report says that India has witnessed a surge in GHG emissions by 6.1% in 2023 from 2022 levels. However, this is also an indication of growing energy demand in the country. Experts point out that India has made significant efforts in terms of reducing emissions intensity over the last few years.

Estimates by The Council of Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) show that the country’s overall emissions intensity dropped by 35% in 2019, in comparison to 2005 levels. “While at the global stage, India is among the top five emitters, the reality is that at a per capita emission level, given the sheer population size, we are well below the global average,” says Neha Khanna, senior manager at Climate Policy Initiative (CPI).

India looks well placed to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets for 2030, add experts. However, the country has to step up efforts to reduce emissions after peaking, to achieve long-term climate goals. India’s emissions are slated to peak in 2045-47.

Brisk Progress

The reduction in carbon emission reduction can be attributed to factors such as energy efficiency improvement from standard and labelling programmes, enhancement of renewable energy installed capacity and electrification of the end-use sector, including electric vehicles (EVs).

Significant progress in renewable energy has also been made on the policy side. Both private sector and institutional players in the public sector are looking at ways to achieve and support the government's ambitions and targets in these areas. Electric mobility across segments is another area that has seen considerable progress.

“Not just two-wheelers and three-wheelers, we are also talking trucks and buses. A lot of states have come out with tenders for e-buses, Delhi being one of the prime examples,” adds Khanna.

As a developing economy growing at over 7% annually, the reality is that India’s carbon emissions are going to grow too, till around 2047.

What Did India Commit at COP26

At the COP26 summit in Glasgow, India updated its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement of 2015 and long-term low carbon development strategies towards net zero emissions by 2070. India’s revised NDCs included a commitment to reduce emissions intensity of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 45% by 2030, from the 2005 level. It also committed to achieving 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030 and propagating a healthy and sustainable way of living based on traditions and values of conservation and moderation. 

In 2023, India achieved two of its targets under the first NDC. The government claimed that the emissions intensity of India’s GDP reduced by 33% between 2005 and 2019. It also stated that cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources stood at 186.46 MW, which is 43.81% of total cumulative electric power installed capacity.

Some Wins, Some Hurdles

India has enhanced its emissions intensity target to 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and is on track to meet these targets. But according to Pallavi Das, who leads the low-carbon economy team at CEEW, uncertainties such as low renewable energy (RE) investments in recent years could pose a challenge. Other concerns are land availability, high intermittency of renewables, higher costs of panels due to import duties and discoms that are tied up in long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) not buying new RE power.While there has been progress on deployment of electric vehicles in the country, upfront costs and a lack of reliable charging infrastructure pose challenges in scaling up the initiatives. “For the industrial sector, fossilised manufacturing capacities will create decarbonisation challenges,” Das adds.

The Road Ahead

The UNEP reports states that India is among seven G20 member countries where GHG emissions have not peaked yet. The report suggests that these countries have to step up efforts to reduce emissions quickly after peaking. It also highlights the need for an increase in global climate investments in India, especially for capital-intensive green hydrogen projects. When it comes to India, experts suggest the need for more regulated frameworks and policy interventions with an increased focus on taxonomy. However, to achieve a transition to renewables that will be truly people-centric, cohesion at the national and state levels is going to be crucial.