Looking at the optimistic side of the picture, some may argue that India’s per capita consumption is way below the peer emerging markets, hence it is bound to go up. On the other hand, looking at the current scenario, there is a structural slowdown in the Indian economy. There is a real dearth of jobs, especially for the vast army of people who are entering the job market every year.
Years of depressed farm prices have aggravated the already precarious financial condition of Indian farmers. In addition, car sales have been falling at a fast clip, which at least one may argue is because many people are ditching their cars for Uber and Ola. Last year, makers of the famous Parle-G biscuits said that it would have to lay off 10,000 workers amid a worsening slowdown, especially in hinterlands. Keeping aside the government data, both released and unreleased, it would be hard for anyone to argue that India’s consumption story is still intact. However, the question is whether the slowdown is cyclical or the long-term India consumption story is over?