Key Takeaways from RBI Bulletin: Economic Outlook, Inflation, Policies, and More

Outlook Business Desk

Economic Outlook for India

The Reserve Bank of India believes that the slack observed in the second quarter of 2024-25 is now behind India. In the third quarter, demand improved due to all the spending during the festive season. Manufacturing and construction are expected to sustain their upward movement, while the services sector will maintain growth momentum as well. The production estimates for Kharif crops are expected to support farm income and rural demand

Financial Market Condition

Global uncertainty lends a fair amount of stress to equity markets and foreign portfolio investments, despite which, financial conditions are expected to remain accommodative due to corporate bond issuances and FDI inflows. On the other hand, private investment is repressed, due to lack of corporate earnings

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Monetary Policy and Inflation

October saw the rise of consumer price index (CPI) inflation to a glaring 6.2 per cent. According to RBI, inflation is likely to recede in the last quarter of FY 2024-25, but it remains uncertain because of the unpredictable weather and geopolitical tensions. The RBI stresses its efforts to reduce inflation below the 4 per cent target with resilient growth

Sectoral Insights

E-commerce performance has excelled because of the festive season and innovative marketing, causing a decrease in the traditional methods of retail. The clean energy sector is also expected to create jobs and drive economic growth as increasing EV adoption in the country is securing its place as a leader in sustainable transportation

Risks and Challenges

Global economic activity remained resilient in Q4 2024. However, RBI expressed its concerns over the possibility of adverse shifts in trade and fiscal policies affecting global stability