Donald Trump or Kamala Harris: Why Who Takes The White House Matters To India

US Presidential Elections: From an attempt to assassinate former President Trump to Joe Biden's awkward fumbles during debate, this tenure's election play has been quite a watch. For netizens, the election topic was never out of sight, thanks to Elon Musk's live commentary and open support for the Republican candidate. The billionaire made sure to hit every single note, from $1 million daily giveaways to Taylor Swift’s cat.

Keeping aside all the political mayhem, the vote count will begin on Tuesday, November 5. While the initial results could start coming in the next day and spill over to November 7, it might take a few days for the final outcome to come. Till then, the polls have painted a mixed, or rather a dramatic picture.

Harris has got a tiny lead over Trump nationwide, but the former president appears to be ahead in almost all the 7 swing states, as per major pollsters in the US. And winning in these states can be a make or break thing for either candidate.

For India, whose K-shaped economic growth and turbulence in neighbouring countries are already creating chaos in the policy view, the upcoming election result is likely to produce a set tone for the economic outlook. Be it about tariffs, inflation or the import-export game, the results will perhaps be a major guiding point for the relations between both nations.

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State of Relations in Crossfire

The superpower's relations with India have been somewhat turbulent in recent months, largely owing to the Khalistan row.

Just last month, the US charged former Indian official Vikash Yadav for allegedly plotting to assassinate Khalistani terrorist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The FBI even added Yadav to its 'most-wanted' list.

Add to that, less than a week ago, nearly 19 Indian companies and two individuals were sanctioned for alleged links with Russia in the Ukraine war. All these incidents have been a dampener for the current state of relations between both nations. This is even more concerning because the US is one of India’s top trade partners, with India holding a trade surplus of $36.74 billion with the country in 2023-24. It’s one of the few nations where India exports more than it imports.

As the vote count begins, here’s a look at both the possible outcomes of the presidential election and what they could mean for India's political sphere under Modi 3.0-

Scenario Harris

From a hike in corporate tax levels to mortgage assistance for first time buyers, Harris' policy book slightly inclines to the middle and lower-income demography of the US. She was the first sitting vice president to visit an abortion clinic and has made the topic a core part of her campaign.

While a large part of her economic policy view follows Biden's playbook— also referred to as 'Bidenomics'— which focuses on economic growth from middle out and bottom out, inflation levels have been a major party crasher. During Biden's initial 2 years, prices spiked sharply and peaked at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022. However, things did start to cool down later.

As of now, the US inflation has dropped to 2.1 per cent, which is nearly in line with the Federal Reserve's goal. The average annual growth rate stood at 2.2 per cent, just slightly below the 2.3 per cent mark under Trump's presidency.

On the geopolitical front, the Western nation made sure to strengthen the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) alliance to counter China's dominance. India sealed multiple big deals in the defence and tech space with the US, under the Biden administration.

But the recent Pannun incident signals that the Democrats might not be as inclined towards India as people believe. Many cohorts see them as unsympathetic, especially after US Congresswoman Ilhan Omar spoke out against the death of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, last year.

She had urged the federal government to back Canada’s investigation into Nijjar’s death. Plus, while Harris has had a pretty fine relationship with India’s Prime Minister, her past comments on Article 370 could make things a bit tricky.

Scenario Trump

Perhaps, one thing that’s pretty much guaranteed to take a hit if Trump takes over the White House again, is India's tariff levels. The Republican candidate has been quite vocal about India's export tariffs but in a rather soft tone.

"The most important element of my plan to make America extraordinarily wealthy again is reciprocity. It's a word that's very important in my plan because we generally don't charge tariffs.....We really don't charge. China will charge us a 200 per cent tariff. Brazil is a big charger. The biggest charger of all is India," Trump said in his speech in Detroit.

And then the tone simmered down.

“India is a very big charger. We have a great relationship with India. I did. And especially the leader, Modi. He's a great leader. Great man. Really is a great man. He's brought it together. He's done a great job,” he said.

It's worth mentioning that both Trump and Modi have been active supporters of each other during elections. This was quite visible when Modi pasted his well-known campaign slogan on his name, "Abki baar Trump ki sarkaar."

On the domestic tax front, he has pledged to cut the rates of corporate tax levels and increase import fees by 10-20 per cent, not a very favourable proposal for other nations. Despite his focus on the higher income bracket, Kamala Harris has garnered more billionaire supporters than Trump.

As for the climate play, the past records have not been great under his administration. He had rolled back over 100 environment-related policies during his initial tenure.

What's the most interesting part of his policy image, is his take on inflation where he signalled towards controlling the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. That's something out of the play.

No doubt, the political idealism of the Republican candidate inclines with that of Modi 3.0, but any structural change in export policies or tariff levels can have a significant impact on India's economic playbook. And, if there is anything that is well known about Trump, he doesn't like to take things easy.

At the heart of the presidential election- Immigration

For some US leaders, the country has always been the land of immigrants and for some, it has been a core socio-political issue. Trump remains firm on his stance to seal the border by completing the wall construction. His re-entry in the White house might be a nightmare for H-1B visa holders and their spouses. As per data, India has the highest number of H-1B visa holders in the US.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris, who has faced criticism for handling the border issue, is planning to tackle the southern border crisis by opening up more legal pathways for immigrants.

This time, immigration has been the top issue among voters. According to the Pew Research Center, the nation always had more immigrants than any other nation.

For a country like the US, which has always been a passive dream for those in search of a better livelihood, the upcoming elections will be a major watch. With the election results just around the corner, everyone’s eyes will be on the capitalist crown.