Is Your Portfolio Ready For The Future?

Updated on: 3 July 2020 11:50 pm

We are living in an increasingly globalised world. As an Indian consumer, we have benefitted from access to a variety of high-quality goods and services that are produced outside India but not produced domestically. However, integration into a global economy also brings in a unique challenge to investments. A negative development in any corner of the world has the potential to impact more than one country or a globally used commodity that brings volatility to our domestic portfolios. Be it a geopolitical risk or a completely unthinkable one like the coronavirus outbreak. One question that I am often asked is how should investors eliminate risk from investments? Fact remains that risk cannot be eliminated but can be reduced by diversification. Diversifying investments across asset classes and also within the asset class is key to manage risk. As an investor you may be thinking your equity investments are well diversified across mutual funds, stocks, and Portfolio Management Services (PMS), but have you considered the fact that market capitalisation of India is $2 trillion while market capitalisation of the rest of the world is $87 trillion. So, if you are not invested in global markets outside India, you are ignoring an opportunity that is roughly 43 times bigger.

Besides, globally there is a lot of innovation taking place that is impacting our day to day lives by disrupting various industries and will have investment implications. Some of the trends that are emerging are;

Rise of an on-demand economy with the penetration of mobile phones. Today using your mobile, you can hail a cab or view a favourite show on Netflix or order food delivery at your convenience. This is changing the business models of service providers like hotels, content providers, and others.
E-commerce and the rise of global brands. Online shopping is an emerging trend. Along with it there is the rise of global brands. A person from an affluent family is more likely to go for Nike or Adidas instead of a domestic brand.

Move towards a cashless society. With a variety of payment options emerging like a credit card, debit card, wallets, net banking, globally the use of cash is reducing in our day to day lives.

Artificial intelligence and robotics are developing at a rapid pace. From simple chess-playing computers to driverless cars to robots performing surgery, globally some fascinating work is being done. If you think you are not using artificial intelligence think again, google map is a case in point.

Major innovations in this area are making detection treatment and management of diseases more and more simple. Recently a chip was launched that monitors the blood sugar level of the patient 24/7 eliminating the requirement of blood tests.

As a person gets linked to the digital world, he or she starts generating data through emails, tweets, messages, online surfing. A huge amount of data generated needs storage. Hence new-age solutions like cloud computing are emerging.

At this point of time, very few disruptive innovators are listed on the Indian stock markets. Also, not all the work is happening in the US, companies from China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latam are doing some cutting-edge work. So, if you wish to participate in the exciting themes for the future then the only option is to invest through a global fund.

Investing in global funds also helps you take the benefit of rupee depreciation. Over the last 35 years, the rupee has depreciated by an average of 6 per cent. So, if you are planning for your daughter's or son's education abroad a few years down the line you will have to account for higher cost due to a rise in fees and also depreciation of the rupee. It will be worthwhile to note that as the depreciation of rupee works in your favor, appreciation of rupee could take away a part of returns. Also, as global funds are subject to debt taxation, the incidence of tax on gains could be higher. You also need to stay invested for three years to be eligible for long term capital gains. But all in all, as you think about mitigating risk going forward, your focus should primarily be on diversification and within that, global funds can add value to your portfolio.

Happy investing

The author is the CEO, PGIM India Mutual Fund