Nikhil Kamath, Co-founder and CIO of Zerodha, explains how large-cap stocks will outperform over the next decade, during an interview with Himali Patel.
What is your outlook of Indian financial markets for the next six months?
We have witnessed a significant correction from the top, and at current valuations, we are finding many value propositions to allocate capital with a medium-term perspective. While it’s impossible to call a bottom, we are bottom fishing at the current juncture and adding to it we feel large cap stocks will outperform over the next decade.
Which are the major sectors that are likely to get impacted?
We are bearish on real estate in India, this is one sector where the underlying yield on the asset class currently gives a rate of return much below the risk-free rate. Most real estate companies are leveraged and work at nominal margins. We see a 30 to 40 per cent correction in real estate prices and would expect the industry to consolidate much like banking. Asset light companies without large land banks and companies with lower debt ratios are our picks here.
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Is India heading towards a recession?
As an emerging economy, we are still working off a low base. A negative growth over one or two quarters might not be the biggest cause of worry. Markets are forward-looking. They are more likely to react to what they gauge might happen in two years versus the next six months. Demand in the industry is bound to make a comeback whenever we put the pandemic issue behind us.
For investment, which are the sectors to bet on and which are the ones to avoid?
We are bullish on pharma, banking and IT, while remain bearish on real estate and related sectors. We would recommend sticking to the largest companies, which have balance sheets to tide over the next 12 months instead of investing in small or mid-cap enterprises.
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