From the late 1990s until the 2008 financial crisis, most commodities experienced double-digit price growth annually, a period known as the commodity “supercycle.” But today, commodities as an asset class are a far cry from those glory days. The fall in the price of crude oil triggered by OPEC’s increasing supplies and the metal meltdown caused by the Chinese slowdown have cast a shadow of doubt and pessimism on the space. In this interview, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and author of “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets” outlines the course ahead for commodities.
What is your view on commodities? Can the current rally sustain?
Industrial metals are behaving in a complicated fashion when it comes to marking a bottom. Oil had a big drop and is now using the dead-cat bounce to rally. Energy will go back to test the lows later this year, then it would have made its bottom. That is also the case with industrial metals. They would be testing their lows a little later. When it comes to gold and silver, I am not buying yet. I expect a better opportunity later this year or the next. I am optimistic about agriculture though. Agriculture is marking its bottom, if it hasn’t already. Things like sugar and rice are very low and attractive. As the world is engulfed by a crisis again and governments print and spend more money, I suspect a lot of it would go into real assets such as commodities.
But the demand remains