Economists had been closely eyeing India's economic trajectory, anticipating a GDP growth print within the range of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent during the July-September quarter. However, the latest figures have defied these expectations, revealing an impressive 7.6 per cent growth rate.
Despite a slight dip from the previous quarter's 7.8 per cent, the nation's economy remains resilient, confounding earlier projections and instilling confidence in its ability to navigate global economic challenges successfully.
During the September quarter, the manufacturing sector experienced a year-on-year expansion of 13.9 per cent, marking a significant increase from the adjusted 4.7 per cent growth reported in the preceding quarter.
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In the second quarter of the fiscal year 2023-24, the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices is projected to reach Rs 41.74 lakh crore, reflecting an increase from the Rs 38.78 lakh crore recorded in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year, Q2 2022-23. This represents a robust growth rate of 7.6 per cent, surpassing the 6.2 percent growth observed in Q2 2022-23.
The Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or GDP at Current Prices is estimated to reach Rs 71.66 lakh crore in Q2FY24, an increase from the recorded figure of Rs 65.67 lakh crore in the corresponding period of the preceding fiscal year, Q2 2022-23. This denotes a growth rate of 9.1 percent.
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"Looking ahead, we project GDP growth to moderate significantly in H2 FY2024, with the continuing headwinds such as the normalising base, weak outlook for agri output and rural demand, tepid global growth, narrowing differentials in commodity prices and transmission of past monetary tightening. Additionally, the possible slowdown in momentum of Government capex as we approach the Parliamentary Elections could constrain growth outcomes. Given the higher than forecast outcome for Q2, we are revising our FY2024 growth forecast to 6.2 per cent from 6.0 per cent," said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA Ltd.
