Investment Cycle Gaining Momentum, Envisaged Capex To Jump Over 80% In FY24: RBI Paper

Investment activity is gaining momentum and the envisaged capital expenditure is set to jump by over 80 per cent to Rs 1.71 lakh crore in the current fiscal, according to an article by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) staffers. 
     
The article by Shreya Bhan, Rajendra N Chavhan and Rajesh B Kavediya, which was published on Thursday, said improvement in capacity utilisation of the manufacturing sector, pick-up in credit demand and improving consumer sentiments are helping the capex cycle. 
     
Cleaning up of balance sheets by both corporates and banks makes room for upping lending activities, the article, which draws from the RBI's data from banks,
     
The paper does not represent the official position of the central bank.
     
"The phasing profile of the envisaged capex, based on the pipeline projects finance... suggests that the envisaged capex increased significantly to Rs 1,71,568 crore in 2023-24 as against Rs 94,876 crore in 2022-23," the article said. 
     
In 2022-23 (FY23), infrastructure -- including power, telecom, ports and airports, storage and water management, special economic zone, industrial, biotech, IT park, and roads and bridges -- remained the major sector accounting for 60 per cent of the total cost of projects.
     
Apart from infrastructure, metal and metal products, construction, textile, and food products accounted for a sizeable share in the total cost of projects envisaged in FY23, the article said. 
     
It said about 547 projects received assistance from banks and financial institutions during FY23 with a record project cost of Rs 2.66 lakh crore as compared to 401 projects having a total project cost of Rs 1.42 lakh crore in FY22. 
     
Of the total FY23 project cost, about 33 per cent (Rs 87,997 crore) was expected to be spent in FY23 itself while 34.7 per cent (Rs 92,539 crore) is likely to be spent in FY24 and another 24.8 per cent (Rs 66,071 crore) in the subsequent period, the article said. 
     
Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Karnataka accounted for 57.2 per cent share in total project cost in FY23, higher than their 43.2 per cent share in FY21, the article said. 
     
In FY23, Uttar Pradesh accounted for the highest share (16.2 per cent) in the total cost of projects sanctioned by banks/financial institutions, followed by Gujarat, Odisha, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, it said.  
     
The article warned that higher cost of capital because of the rate hikes by central banks, including the RBI, geopolitical tensions-led global uncertainties and risk of a slowdown in major advanced economies, can hamper investment activities. 
     
"The investment cycle appears to be poised to gain momentum going ahead, but, its sustainability needs to be watched closely," it added.