Towards Net-Zero By 2050

Today everyone who is concerned about climate change and sustainability is familiar with the term “net-zero”. Net-zero is achieved when level of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) released into the atmosphere is equal to the amount removed. GHGs, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), trap heat, causing the planet to warm, but excessive warming can cause environmental hazards like heatwaves, flooding, droughts and irreversible negative impact on flora and fauna. Burning of fossil fuels is the principal cause of excess CO2 in the atmosphere. As per United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global warming must be restricted to 1.5 deg C by 2100. For this, we must achieve net zero by 2050, if not sooner. Net zero requires decarbonisation, i.e. removal or reduction of CO2 output into the atmosphere, across sectors.  This energy transition away from fossil fuels must happen at a rapid pace. International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that around 40% and 70% of the energy supply must come from renewables by 2030 and 2050 respectively as against a mere 12% today. 

Proven technologies such as wind, solar and EVs must be deployed on a war footing through 2030. Tripling renewables capacity by 2030 commitment is an extremely positive statement of intent to emerge from COP 28. Electrification with wind and solar energy is going to be mainstay of energy transition in this decade. Emerging technologies such as green hydrogen (produced by electrolysis of water through renewable energy) and derivatives, carbon capture and storage must start scaling too for decarbonisation of hard to abate sectors. 

Hard to abate sectors are those which are difficult to electrify, such as steel, cement, plastic, fertilisers etc. Steel contributes over 8% of the GHG emissions from its high heat reduction processes. Contribution of cement to global emissions is almost at par with steel. It also requires very high heat to break limestone and the limestone decomposition again produces CO2. Among fertilizers, ammonium nitrate is the most common. Ammonia production through grey hydrogen is responsible for around 1.8% of annual CO2 emissions. Decarbonization of the above heavy industries will involve switching to processes that require low emissions fuel or feedstock such as green hydrogen, installing equipment for carbon capture and storage and recycling. Fertilizer sector provides an existing use case as it can directly replace grey and can take the lead in green hydrogen offtake. 

Transportation sector which includes heavy duty trucking, aviation, and shipping also needs to decarbonise. While battery electric power is adequate for smaller vehicles, large commercial vehicles like trucks will require green hydrogen to mitigate CO2 emissions. 

Aviation and shipping, which together contribute around 5% of emissions, are heavily reliant on fuel-based solutions for decarbonisation. Sustainable Aviation Fuels can be biofuels produced from biomass or synthetic fuels produced by mixing captured CO2 with green hydrogen. For shipping the e-fuels being considered are e-methanol and e-ammonia. E-methanol is under more active consideration right now with several companies ordering dual fuel ships which can run on methanol. As per IEA e-fuels will have limited impact on transport prices. 

All emerging green solutions need to overcome structural, commercial, technological, supply chain related challenges. Globally research labs, policy makers, institutions, corporations are working in tandem to resolve these. Net-zero by 2050 will definitely be a reality as the world comes together to decarbonise.

(Rahul Munjal, CMD, Hero Future Energies)