How to Mainstream ‘Just Transition’ at COP29

At the recent Pre-COP in Azerbaijan, the President-Designate highlighted the negotiating priorities that must take the centrestage at the upcoming conference, headlined by a focus on establishing actionable partnerships and mobilising financial and technical resources. The objective will be to transform pledges into binding agreements, especially regarding loss and damage and, alongside, increase contributions to the Green Climate and Adaptation Funds. 

The concept of a just transition gained significant momentum at COP 28, lockstep with growing recognition of the importance of social contracts among countries. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement only touched upon it, recent discussions have underscored its importance in securing the scale of climate action needed by 2030 and 2050. The International Labour Organisation's 2015 guidelines for such a transition were reaffirmed in June 2024. As a result, several national climate plans now integrate social commitments such as worker protection, skill development, job creation and dedicated just transition funds into their climate action. 

These advancements regardless, COP 28 failed to adequately address a significant challenge--the mobilisation of funds, turning it into a crucial negotiating point for COP 29 as developed countries have yet to meet their commitment to provide $100 billion in climate finance annually by 2020-- a figure that falls short of the funds required by developing nations. Estimates of the Independent High-level Expert Group, indicates that developing nations and emerging markets will need 2.4 trillion dollars annually by 2030 to meet their climate goals. 

A New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is expected to be finalised in Baku, potentially paving the way for next generation just transition plans, incorporating sufficient finances to phase out the global dependency on coal, scale renewable energy and propel oil and gas transitions across the developing world.  

Jumpstarting Just Transition 

As COP 29 zeroes in on its focus on implementing just transition plans, a clear framework aligning just transition efforts with national priorities is lacking. Effective frameworks will require early stakeholder engagement and a policy-driven approach connecting just transition with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which set emission reduction and adaptation targets. With the next round of NDCs due by February 2025, the Baku conference offers a critical opportunity to integrate just transition pathways into updated national plans. Developing comprehensive policy frameworks the concept into national action plans could provide valuable indicators and assessment criteria enabling countries to collaborate effectively, increase transparency and strengthen climate action plans for just transition.  

While the understanding of net zero goals is growing, frameworks to support just transition remain underdeveloped. COP conferences cannot supplant national policy-making, but can foster international consensus and cooperative frameworks. Recognising the need for clear guidelines and indicators, the discussions in Baku must account for diverse national contexts. Transparency and cooperation will be crucial for coordinated climate action strategies. Just Energy Transition Partnerships in countries like South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam and Senegal have yielded varied results, underscoring the need for collaboration on trade investment and adoption of just transition work programmes across more nations.  

Social Justice 

Placing social justice at the forefront of COP 29 outcomes is essential. Decent work and quality jobs must be central to national development priorities, emphasising social protection and labour rights. Efforts to enhance resilience and mitigation should consider social welfare and just transition discussions must integrate across work-streams, fostering dialogue through frameworks, such as the NCQG, the Standing Committee on Finance, the Katowice Committee and the Global Goal on Adaptation. Achieving a unified approach will be crucial for meaningful just transition that balances social and environmental priorities.  

(The writer is vice president sustainability momentum India and former director, CDP India.)