Carbon From Canada’s 2023 Wildfires Equal India’s Annual Emissions: Study

Canada’s record-breaking 2023 wildfire season has released such significant carbon emissions that it has matched the annual fossil fuel emissions of India, according to a recent study. The study highlights the profound impact of extreme heat and drought on the boreal forests encircling the Arctic, leading to an increased propensity for these forests to burn.

The study, published in the journal Nature by an international team of researchers, underscores the challenges in carbon accounting, as Canada does not currently report wildfire-related emissions to the United Nations under the Paris Agreement. The findings also serve as a cautionary tale for carbon offset programmes that rely on ecosystems previously considered stable.  

During the 2023 wildfire season, which was the hottest and driest in the 44 years of records examined by the study, Canada emitted 647 million metric tonnes of carbon. This amount is equivalent to the annual fossil fuel emissions of the world’s top 10 largest emitters, and more than four times Canada’s own annual fossil fuel emissions.  

The study utilised a “top-down” approach to estimate these emissions, examining trace gas emissions in fire plumes using satellite-based wildfire sensors like TROPOMI. The researchers also employed a “bottom-up” approach, relying on satellite detections of heat signatures from wildfires and knowledge of vegetation to calculate carbon emissions. 

Lead author Brendan Byrne of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory noted the surprise at the carbon emission estimates, which were far higher than the previous worst wildfire season on record. The research also indicates that climate projections show an increasing likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions, which could lead to even larger and more intense wildfires in the future. 

Such developments could undermine the ability of Canada’s ecosystems to act as net absorbers, or “sinks,” of carbon, posing a significant challenge to global efforts to limit warming. Despite this, Canada does not currently account for wildfire emissions in its carbon reporting, treating them as “natural disturbances,” even as human-caused climate change exacerbates these blazes.  

Brendan Byrne emphasised the importance of considering all emissions and removals of carbon to achieve global warming targets, stating, “Even if Canada does not count these emissions, they are relevant to reaching warming targets.”  

The findings also raise questions about the effectiveness of carbon offset programmes. With climate change causing more severe wildfire seasons in Canada, the United States, and other regions, some forests used for offsets have been destroyed by fire, negating the carbon benefits they were intended to provide. This was notably the case with the California carbon market, where forests designated for carbon offsets were consumed by the Park Fire, releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.  

Additionally, other research suggests that ecosystems, including Canada’s northern forests, may become less capable of absorbing carbon as the climate continues to warm. The record heat and drought witnessed in Canada during the summer of 2023 may be an outlier now, but projections indicate that such conditions could become the norm by mid-century. 

Byrne further commented on the broader implications, stating, “Climate change will certainly impact all ecosystems, and it is very challenging to model or predict how these changes will impact ecosystems' ability to sequester carbon. Understanding the uncertainties about long-term carbon sequestration in forests is crucial.”  

As wildfires surge across the planet’s northern regions, Canada alone accounted for nearly one-third of all forest loss due to wildfire last year, highlighting a trend towards increasingly active wildfire seasons in the boreal forests surrounding the Arctic. 

The 2023 wildfire season, Canada’s worst on record, continues with over 1,040 blazes still burning. The most dangerous fires, threatening both property and lives, are concentrated in the Northwest Territories and British Columbia. Alongside these threats, the wildfires have been releasing ever-increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and other harmful emissions, far surpassing previous seasons in the era of satellite monitoring.