Global Warming Target of 1.5°C Will Soon be Dead if Urgent Action is Not Taken: UN Report

The global warming target of 1.5°C set by the Paris Agreement will be gone within a few years unless countries collectively commit to cut 42 per cent of annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 in the next round of nationally determined contributions, according to Emissions Gap Report 2024 released on Thursday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), ahead of COP29.

The report warned that the annual greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high.

“Climate crunch time is here,” said UNEP executive director Inger Andersen. “We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before, starting right now before the next round of climate pledges,” she said as cited in a UN News report. She added that if it is not done, the 1.5°C goal to cap rising temperatures “will soon be dead, and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit”.

To keep warming far below 2°C and aim for 1.5°C, the study tracks the difference between where global emissions are going with existing country pledges and where they should be. Without dramatic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the world could face an inevitable and catastrophic 3.1°C temperature rise, the report warned.

COP29 Could Serve as a Launchpad

The COP29 UN Climate Change Conference commencing in Baku, Azerbaijan on November 11 should serve as a launchpad for a detailed discussion of such new ambitious national plans, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video message, adding that the event “starts the clock for countries to deliver new national climate action plans by next year”.

“Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said.

That means they must lower all GHG emissions and cover the entire economy, progressing in every sector, he said, urging the largest economies—the G20 members responsible for around 80 per cent of all emissions—to lead in this process. There is hope, the UN chief stressed.

“Today’s report shows affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need to 2030 and 2035 to meet the 1.5°C limit, but only with a surge in ambition and support,” he said.

Roadmap for a Better Future

The report shows that there is significant potential to reduce emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ by 2030. Strengthening solar and wind energy infrastructure could contribute 27 per cent of the total reduction in 2030 and 38 per cent by 2035. Moreover, forest conservation could provide around 20 per cent of the necessary reductions in both years.

Enhancing energy efficiency, electrifying various sectors and transitioning from fossil fuels in buildings, transport and industry are some of the other strategies to reduce emissions, as mentioned in the report.