Last evening, I messaged a senior climate activist who has been part of several climate discussions, including the last COP in Dubai, with the same question: “Is COP29 dead?” The reply was prompt: “I am depressed.”
On the face of the answer to the rhetorical question may seem straightforward: “Seemingly so.” Donald Trump’s stance as a climate naysayer is well known. His track record in pulling the United States out of the Paris Agreement commitments is there for all to see. Trump has been a strong advocate for fossil fuel use, in keeping with his vote bank politics.
However, if we reflect on how the world has changed since Donald Trump’s last stint as President of the United States, and also how his politics have evolved over the years, the response to the question becomes more nuanced.
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In recent years, the United States has increasingly faced the impacts of climate change, with hurricanes and wildfires taking a toll on life and property. While outgoing President Biden reversed Trump’s decision on climate change mitigation, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) became the foundation for the United States’ climate action response. Among other things, it set the path for U.S. businesses to decarbonize their operations and reduce carbon emissions. Experts argue that the IRA also strengthened the U.S.'s stance in global climate talks.
Among the many beneficiaries of the IRA were the states where Trump enjoyed the most political support. Climate negotiators and diplomats
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expect a loss of US leadership in climate negotiations as an immediate effect of Trump’s return to the White House. The COP29 talks in Baku will be collateral damage to this effect.
Noted environmentalist and climate negotiator Sunita Narain, however, downplays Trump’s impact on COP29. In a recent media interaction, she was quoted as saying, “We were not expecting much from the United States in any case at COP29.” Her assessment is that the America’s global leadership in climate action will be affected. One unequivocal message from the US presidential elections is that climate is not among the top concerns of American voters.
In a note prepared by Climate Trends, a climate think-tank and consultancy, its director Aarti Khosla points out that the COP in Baku is starting under a very challenging political context: “One in which the US will have a reduced mandate and no political will. It may lead to further lack of progress on important elements, like increasing funding for climate action, and may create more impediments than solutions on contentious matters like trade, given Trump’s protectionist stance.”
To counter the expected Trump-led pushback, many experts and analysts are advocating for a more aggressive stance from other countries to arrive at an NCQC agreement to ensure that funds for climate action are better mobilised and deployed. Trump’s impact on climate-related decisions is more likely to be visible in domestic politics and actions on the ground in the United States, experts believe.
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However, uncertainties will persist regarding the global flow of climate-related investment, say analysts. According to Labanya Jena, Sustainable Finance Specialist, a reduction in public spending for climate action or even the termination of the Inflation Reduction Act, which propelled the development and adoption of low-carbon technologies in the US, can be expected. “The US’ pledge of $3 bil to the Green Climate Fund may also be reneged,” he adds. This could impact the US government’s bilateral financial support to developing countries for climate actions.
The impact on India’s climate finance goals could be mixed, say experts. “The proposed trade barriers will need careful navigation to ensure that Indian industries, especially those for clean technologies, do not suffer. Currently, India exports 90 per cent of its solar modules to the US,” Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), said in a statement. Over the next four years, India will need to be
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prepared and strategically nimble to deepen green trade, co-develop clean tech supply chains, and accelerate its energy transition, he adds.
Ghosh points out that the US election results do not change the fact that India and the US will continue to be key strategic partners. “With Donald Trump in power, India can count on continued oil and gas supply to ensure its developmental needs since the US is now a net exporter of fuels,” he adds.
Whether COP29 will keep global climate negotiations alive and kicking will now depend more on countries other than on the United States.
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