Climate Change In Times Of War And Peace

On World Environment Day (WED), June 5, there will be as usual exchange of greetings as on a birthday or a Valentine’s Day. There is need to do more, particularly because apart from serious climate change issues, we often have conflicts such as the one between Ukraine and Russia, which have the potential to go out of hand and cause serious damage. Therefore, rather than celebrate WED like any other important day, it should be a day of contemplation about the serious issues that we face.

Climate change that we face as a result of Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations is resulting in environmental changes in biosphere, the part of the earth that contains life. Assuming that life can exists up to a depth of 11 km, which is the deepest point in the marina trench, to roughly the height of Mount Everest, we can assume the biosphere to be roughly 20 km thick. The radius of the earth is 6,371 km and life exists only on 0.3% of its radius.

If we were to assume the earth as a potato and we peel it, we will still have the potato without the skin and in case of the earth it will be without life. It is the gaseous composition of the atmosphere (21% O2 and 78% N2) that keeps the current life forms alive. Moreover, the constituents of the atmosphere keep changing over epochs. A major change in oxygen level would mean that the current life forms may not survive. A very thin biosphere subject to change is the crux of the problem. 

Any major disruption in the earth’s climate will disturb the delicate balance within which life exists. That is why climate change, temperature rise, sea level rise and methane from permafrost are considered serious issues.

It is also well established that climate change has been caused by human activities just like many other problems such as the loss of forests, loss of biodiversity, loss of rain forests, massive pavementization all over the world, diminishing grasslands, endangered species, depletion of fish stocks, major disruptions in food chain or food web, and increasing rates of extinctions -- all add up to a complex all-round attack on the living part of this planet. The future is full of known and unknown risks and we do not where we are headed to. However, one thing is sure. The more we work towards reducing GHG emissions, the better control we have over the climate change issue.

Now, in the midst of this global climate crisis, we have a major conflict that has erupted, almost at the centre of Eurasia. This conflict, though it is at the borders of two countries Ukraine and Russia, has wider ramifications for the entire planet. First, a war on this scale, wherever it may happen has disastrous consequence for the ecosystem and climate. Apart from the massive destruction, carbon dioxide from the fires and the poisonous gasses from the explosions combined with war machinery movement lead to a lot of above normal emissions of GHG but nobody has any idea how much. When we are already battling global warming and have reached the limits, a war, any war, is uncalled for.

The war between Russia and Ukraine also bring us very close to complete annihilation. The war itself may cool down and disasters averted by a few months or may be by a few years or even tens of years. However, unless we realise and address a much more deep seated problem of the modern human society, the threat is not going away. We can avert it, we can delay it but it will keep turning back to us – again and again. Moreover, these conflicts can erupt in one part of the world or other – and one day it may be too hot too handle.

The deep seated problem referred to above, paradoxically, is manifest in the “state-of-the-modern-society”. It is in economic compulsions of our “lifestyles”.

Many of us may hardly reflect upon it, but our lifestyles are primarily aided by machines such as vehicles, aircraft, generators, escalators, air conditioners – so on and so forth. In all these machines, metals are the crucial inputs in the manufacture of the machine. For example, rare earth metals or special metals and substance that enhance the properties of steel, etc. These machines need energy to run – and if it is a fossil fuel source then we have a serious climate change issue as well. These minerals have to be extracted but are not equally distributed all across the world. While extraction and processing causes serious environmental issues, it is possible that the need to access these reserves and resources could lead to all kinds of conflicts in many parts of the world.

Therefore, even if we end our dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear power, the problem has not ended. We still need massive amount of minerals for all kinds of industrial products from something as small as a tooth paste to luxury cars. The other part of the problem is our “lifestyle” which is driven by retail market economy – with its sub-components – branding, marketing campaigns and financing of all kinds of products. Any amount of preaching is not going to prevent people from shopping and buying what they want, irrespective of the implied damage to the climate.  

As long as there is a demand, materials will be sourced and will reach the shelves and showrooms. In this entire chain that sustains our system, we not only need the mines and other types of extraction zones but also those shelves and showrooms where finished products must be placed. In short, we also need the markets. From Far East to far west, this is the economic system followed. There are no political blocks but there are economic blocks that often compete and struggle for dominance. The competition in access to the markets and the resources may result in conflicts, tensions and even wars.

The entire economic system, though it does not physically sit anywhere, works like a global machine. 

The modern human society has somehow got hooked on to these economic systems – “The Economic Being(s).” I call them “Economic Beings” because these economic systems evolve and thrive like a “being”. Each and every one of us specialises in something or the other that finally feeds into the economic being. Fortunately or unfortunately, we cannot get rid of this system. We have become a part of it and a part cannot exist without the whole.

No war is good; it carries on with the ecological disaster on one hand, and misery to the people on the other. In today’s world, a war is not fought for territory but for economic resources, which is natural resources, markets and strategic entry points. If some place “ABC” in Africa suddenly lands up with a discovery of massive reserves of rare earth metals or some such thing, then that place is where next war may be fought. The problem is complicated by nuclear weapons.

If we have to resolve our problems, which are plenty and quite a mess, we will have to tame these “Economic Beings”. However, if are not able do anything about it, then we are headed to a status of a “Species that couldn’t make it” or worse still, “the only planet where the life sparked and died down” because for at least a thousand of light years around us, there is no sign of life, not to speak of a full fledged advanced, nuke and space enabled civilization that we have on the earth today.

So what can be done? As far as the as the conflict in Eurasia is concerned, it is important to realize that it is a manifestation of the conflicts in the economic system. Loss of life and hardships to people is deplorable and highly condemnable. But condemnation by itself is not a solution. To find a solution, we must go to the root cause. If the “Economic Being” is to be tamed, the key actors who form this economic being must have a “meeting of the minds”. Therefore, like the Conference of Parties (COP) of Climate Change, we need a COP of the Economic Being – only more effective in taking binding decisions, which should plan to reduce the risks to the planet, its life-forms and the human civilization.

As far as climate change is concerned, an important part of the bigger problem, it has been studied well and understood and the solution is very much in everyone’s sight, which is renewable energy combined with storage systems, hydrogen, etc. This part of the problem should be addressed with the greatest speed.

(The author is the Vice President of World Wind Energy Association)